The trainer’s room is once again the most heavily trafficked area for the Baltimore Ravens, who may have won their opening game of the 2023 NFL season but were also dealt some devastating losses.
Baltimore, which has been snake-bitten with injury issues the past three seasons, limps into a Week 2 divisional showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals this Sunday.
The Bengals were among the biggest busts of Week 1, managing only three points on 142 total yards of offense in an embarrassing 24-3 defeat to rival Cleveland. Cincinnati opened as low as a field goal favorite according to Week 2 odds, and Baltimore’s injury concerns have tacked a half-point onto this spread.
I dive into the NFL odds for this AFC North grudge match and give my best NFL picks for Ravens vs. Bengals on September 17.
Ravens vs Bengals odds
Ravens vs Bengals predictions
It may only be Week 2 but this divisional clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals will have a playoff-like atmosphere.
Before Week 1, these were the two teams projected to push for the AFC North crown in 2023. A win Sunday lends the inside track to a victor — a valuable position considering things could get crammed in the division if Cleveland keeps it up.
This Over/Under total opened as low as 45.5 points after last Sunday’s results and has quickly been bet up to as high as 47 points, with early play on the Over.
Neither offense looked outstanding in Week 1, most notably with Cincinnati scoring a mere field goal and amassing only 142 total yards of offense. Given that weird result, you have to expect a correction in output from the Bengals’ high-powered attack, but this will still be a grinder of a game.
Cincinnati’s sore spot in Week 1 was an inability to move the chains. The Bengals recorded only six first downs, went 2 for 15 on third down attempts, and had seven consecutive possessions end in a three-and-out.
Quarterback Joe Burrow was rusty after missing all of August’s training camp and preseason while nursing a calf injury suffered in late July. His slow progression wasn’t helped by poor play from the Cincinnati offensive line, which allowed two sacks, seven QB hits, and just 2.1 seconds of pocket time against a pressure rate of 27.3%.
Baltimore is one of the better defenses at collapsing the pocket as well as showing rival offenses the door on third down. The Ravens had five sacks on Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud in Week 1, cooking up a pressure rate of 32.1%. This unit finished 2022 with 48 sacks on the season (fifth-most) and boasted the fourth-lowest third-down conversion rate allowed (36.04%).
Baltimore has also done well against Burrow in his short but sensational pro career. The Bengals QB owns a completion rate of 67% against the Ravens, who have also sacked Burrow nine times and intercepted three of his passes over five career meetings. Baltimore especially slowed down Burrow in 2022, with Cincy’s gunslinger limited to a passer rating of 86.98 over three matchups in which he averaged just under 214 yards passing.
Things also look bleak for Baltimore’s franchise player. Lamar Jackson wasn’t outstanding in Week 1, coughing up the ball twice and completing just 17 of 22 passes for 169 yards in an ugly win over Houston.
Jackson could be missing two of his top protectors for this trip to Ohio, with tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum both suffering injuries in the opener. Head coach John Harbaugh listed them as week-to-week but hinted that the offensive line could be without those big bodies this Sunday.
The injury to Linderbaum could have a deeper impact than books are adjusting for, as his connection with Jackson under center is vital to this ground game and snap counts are difficult to hear on the road. Sam Mustipher would step in at center if Linderbaum’s ankle can’t go Sunday.
That short-handed group takes on a Bengals pass rush that was perhaps the only positive to come out of Cincinnati’s Week 1 blunder. The defense was able to get to Browns QB Deshaun Watson for three sacks and percolated pressure on almost 26% of Cleveland’s dropbacks, limiting Watson to a rotten 16 of 29 completion count for 154 yards and an INT.
The stop unit, which finished a respectable 12th in EPA allowed per play and stumped the Browns to just 28.6% success on third down, could be even stronger in Week 2. Head coach Zac Taylor gave an update on starting defensive end Joseph Ossai, who missed Week 1 with an ankle injury sustained in the preseason. He’s day-to-day but did return to practice last week, setting the stage for a return this Sunday.
It really feels like a classic AFC North head-butt contest, which is why Harbaugh and the Ravens love it. Baltimore is 7-12 Over/Under (63% Unders) in divisional games the past three seasons.
This total is sitting at 46.5 points at most shops as of Tuesday morning, but you can get the key number of 47 at Pinnacle.
My best bet: Under 47 (-106 at Pinnacle)
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Ravens vs Bengals same-game parlay
Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 rushing yardsTee Higgins Over 4.5 receptionsUnder 46.5 points
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With injuries on the offensive line, Jackson could be under fire and running for his life. Projections call for 50-plus yards from the dual-threat QB.
Burrow will get going in Week 2, and with the Ravens focusing on Ja’Marr Chase, a thin secondary will have to reach deep down the depth chart to cover Tee Higgins. Most models call for more than 4.5 catches, with some even calling for closer to six receptions.
This SGP total (made later in the week when props are released) is half a point shorter than my original wager on the Under. Offensive line issues for the Ravens and Burrow’s problems with Baltimore will keep this AFC North war below the number.
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Ravens vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this Week 2 encounter was Cincinnati -3.5 over the summer. Following the Bengals’ botched season opener and the Ravens running all over Houston for a 25-9 victory, the official Week 2 spread hit the board at a field goal.
However, with RB J.K. Dobbins lost for the year due to an Achilles tear, starting safety Marcus Williams going down, and Linderbaum and Stanley listed as questionable on the offensive line, this line has ticked up to Baltimore +3.5 as of Tuesday morning.
My latest NFL power ratings produced a spread closer to Cincinnati -2, but with adjustments for those potential missing pieces (along with corner Marlon Humphrey still trying to get healthy), you can see this projection pushed to Bengals -3.
While the missing pieces on the Baltimore depth chart are concerning, the biggest question facing AFC North bettors is just how much weight to put into that Week 1 faceplant from Cincy.
We’ve seen the Bengals start slow in recent years, winning just one of their last four season openers and they’ve followed those poor showings with Week 2 defeats. Given the talent on the field for this offense (and the rain-soaked Week 1 outing), you want to give Burrow & Co. the benefit of the doubt.
The Bengals won two of three meetings with the Ravens last year, including a 24-17 victory in the AFC Wild Car Round. That said, those two wins came with Jackson on the sideline. Baltimore did beat Cincinnati 19-17 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 5, and neither QB really played well.
Defense could be the name of the game in this classic rivalry, with the Ravens coming off a sound showing against the Texans — albeit against a rookie quarterback. Baltimore generated pressure on 32% of dropbacks and collected five sacks while finishing Week 1 ranked sixth in EPA per play.
The Bengals’ offensive line buckled against the Browns, allowing Burrow to feel the heat. Cleveland was able to generate pressure on more than 27% of Cincy’s dropbacks and finished the day with two sacks, seven QB hits, and allowed just 2.1 seconds of pocket time — not enough for Cincinnati’s high-flying air attack to do damage downfield.
The death kneel for the Bengals was a series of seven consecutive three-and-outs, which led to a 35:50 edge in time of possession for Cleveland. The Cincinnati stop unit couldn’t catch its breath and eventually caved in, despite a solid EPA rating on the day (12th lowest in Week 1).
As for Baltimore’s offense, the first full-speed reps in Todd Monken’s new system weren’t exceptional. The Ravens ranked 14th in EPA per play against Houston and were outgained by the Texans on the day, with Jackson marred with sloppy play. He was picked off once and fumbled twice, losing one on a miscue with the running back who knocked the ball out of his hands.
This Over/Under number opened at 45.5 points and has jumped up to as high as 47 points, which is shorter than the look-ahead total of 48 points in the offseason.
These foes went 2-1 to the Over in three meetings last season and are 4-3 to the Over in their past seven showdowns since Burrow took over under center in Cincinnati.
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