Like that scrappy team that just won’t go away, Unders made another big statement once again in Week 11, going 10-4 which now has them cashing at a 60.7% clip on the season. While I keep expecting some sort of regression for these NFL betting trends — as I mention in this article week after week — they just keep coming back stronger, but is the tide finally set to turn in Week 12?
This week’s NFL odds feature some rock-bottom totals including Patriots vs. Giants at 33.5, Steelers vs. Bengals at 34, Browns vs. Broncos at 35, and Panthers vs. Titans at 36.5.
Low totals are still going Under though, so don’t be scared off if your numbers support backing the Under in these games. Over the last three weeks, 14 games have had a total lower than 40, and nine of them still went Under. With plenty of backups and backups to backups filling in a quarterback for a handful of teams, this is the state of the NFL these days.
Something else that caught my eye that’s lending itself to more Unders this season is poor execution in the red zone. So far, 12 offenses have a red zone touchdown conversion percentage of less than 50%. Last season, seven teams finished lower than 50% and the season before that, it was only four teams.
It will be interesting to see how low oddsmakers can go with these totals as it’s rare to see totals south of 35, but it might be more commonplace during the stretch run of the season when the weather starts to have more of an impact on NFL picks.
On to the good stuff — here’s my favorite nugget for every game this week! And, oh yeah, Happy Thanksgiving!
